About the Author We may not always know it, but we think in metaphor. A large proportion of our most commonplace thoughts make use of an extensive, but unconscious, system of metaphorical concepts, that is, concepts from a typically concrete realm of thought that are used to comprehend another, completely different domain. Such concepts are often reflected in everyday language, but their most dramatic effect comes in ordinary reasoning. Because so much of our social and political reasoning makes use of this system of metaphorical concepts, any adequate appreciation of even the most mundane social and political thought requires an understanding of this system.
Do We Fear the Right Things? Flying is a case in point. Even before the horrors of September 11th and the ensuing crash at Rockaway Beach, 44 percent of those willing to risk flying told Gallup they felt fearful.
Indeed, the terrorists may still be killing us, in ways unnoticed. If we now fly 20 percent less and instead drive half those unflown miles, we will spend 2 percent more time in motor vehicles.
National Safety Council data reveal that in the last half of the s Americans were, mile for mile, 37 times more likely to die in a vehicle crash than on a commercial flight. From through there were 1. But we have actually been less likely to crash and die on any flight than, when coin tossing, to flip 22 heads in a row.
Why do we fear the wrong things? Why do so many smokers whose habit shortens their lives, on average, by about five years fret before flying which, averaged across people, shortens life by one day?
Why do we fear terrorism more than accidents-which kill nearly as many per week in just the United States as did terrorism with its 2, worldwide deaths in all of the s? First, we fear what our ancestral history has prepared us to fear. Human emotions were road tested in the Stone Age.
Second, we fear what we cannot control. Skiing, by one estimate, poses times the health and injury risk of food preservatives. Driving we control, flying we do not. And availability in memory provides our intuitive rule-of-thumb for judging risks.
Small wonder that most of us perceive accidents as more lethal than strokes, and homicide as more lethal than diabetes. In actuality, the Grim Reaper snatches twice as many lives by stroke as by accident and four times as many by diabetes as by homicide.
In less familiar realms, vivid, memorable images dominate our fears. We can know that unprovoked great white shark attacks have claimed merely 67 lives worldwide since We comprehend the passengers and crew on those four fated flights. We overvalue lottery tickets, overestimate flight risk, and underestimate the dangers of driving.
And when terrorists strike again, remember the odds. If, God forbid, anthrax or truck bombs kill a thousand Americans, we will all recoil in horror. First quote was from his address to the joint session of Congress, the second from his October 11th news conference. Winokur, "Curmudgeon," Funny Times, August,p.
We drove 3, billion miles in the most recent year for which Statistical Abstract of the United States provides data. Last year we flew billion miles. An additional 69 billion miles driven instead of flown would add 2 percent to our 3.
Air traffic data are available from the Air Transport Association at www. Some 40, vehicle-related deaths per year x. Vehicle accidents includes cars, truck, and motorcycles and both passengers and pedestrians. Data from to summarized for me by Kevin T. Several years ago I independently analyzed data from the decade of the s and found that commercial flights were 26 times safer per passenger mile.
I computed these data by averaging passenger fatalities per million passengers from the 11 years from to data available from the Air Transport Association at www.
The odds of heads on a first coin flip are 1 in 2. The odds of two consecutive heads are 1 in 4. The odds of 22 consecutive heads are 1 in 4, The Air Transport Association reports that passengers were killed in plane crashes from 97 per year.
Multiplying 37 x 97 we can estimate that nearly people would have to die in plane crashes during an average year for flying to be as dangerous as cars, trucks, and motorcycles.
Dividing by 60 passengers yields 58 planes like those on that would need to crash for flying to equal the dangers of driving. My estimate of 60 passengers per plane did not count crew members.
Global terrorism claimed 2, lives during the s, reports the U.Look at the essay and do the exercises to improve your writing skills. The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) counted over people killed or injured by alleged perpetrators influenced by the so-called "alt-right" — a movement that continues to access the mainstream and reach young recruits.
Your friends and colleagues are talking about something called "Bayes' Theorem" or "Bayes' Rule", or something called Bayesian reasoning. They sound really enthusiastic about it, too, so you google and find a webpage about Bayes' Theorem and. The Moral Accounting Schemes.
The general metaphor of Moral Accounting is realized in a small number of basic moral schemes: Reciprocation, Retribution, Restitution, Revenge, Altruism, etc.
Each of these moral schemes is defined using the metaphor of Moral Accounting, but the schemes differ as how they use this metaphor, that is, they differ as to their inherent logics. This bar-code number lets you verify that you're getting exactly the right version or edition of a book.
The digit and digit formats both work. Aug 02, · Picture this before you plop yourself down in front of your computer to compose your college application essay: A winter-lit room is crammed with admissions professionals and harried faculty.